For years Hollywood has been telling us that we will someday be able to commute and make long distance trips, a la George Jetson, with our feet propped up on our dashboards and without a care in the world. It seems like science fiction but several large manufacturers and tech firms are working hard to make it a reality. How could this affect the paper industry and other companies that rely on trucks to deliver their products around the country? The answer may surprise you.

The State of the Trucking Industry

Driverless vehicles will allegedly be available as early as 2016 if continued testing goes well. The technology is aimed at trucks, buses and other commercial vehicles as well as consumer autos.

The news is exciting for manufacturers who will undoubtedly see a decrease in transportation costs. Drivers will be secondary which may cause a drastic change in the mandatory laws that require drivers to take a 30 minute break after 8 hours of driving and to stop after 11 hours. The total time on the road may not exceed 14 hours, after which the driver must be off the road for 10 consecutive hours. With a driverless truck, these regulations would surely change since drivers are going to be less prone to fatigue. In the eventuality that driverless vehicles will not be required to have a "secondary" driver, it is possible that the trucks could drive for 24 hours non-stop.

What are some of the concerns? If the driverless truck is a success, it could create a vacuum of jobs in an industry that is the backbone of the transportation industry. The American Truckers Association reports that there are 3.5 million truck drivers in the U.S. Add to that the 5.2 million people employed in support systems and that means a total of 8.7 million jobs could be in jeopardy.

Those figures do not take into account the number of people and businesses that rely upon the trucking industry for support. Restaurants, motels and gas stations would surely suffer if truckers weren't making routine stops. Experts fear that some small towns would become nearly obsolete, much as they did when the interstate highway system became operational in the 1960s.

The Upside

There is no disputing that technology can often make our lives better in myriad ways. Companies such as Google have revolutionized certain areas of the tech market. It is no surprise that Google is also at the forefront of this movement. To date Google's driverless car has driven 100,000 miles without a single accident. Nor have any of the vehicles been cited for traffic violations.

In an article released on December 17, Google reacted to California's proposed law that all driverless vehicles must be manned by a licensed driver. It is unclear how the licensed driver would function in a car that does not contain a steering wheel or pedals. Google plans to seek permits to send its cars out on the highways of other states. Meanwhile, Tesla and Ford have received permission to put their cars on California highways. Not to be outdone, Uber is currently investigating the possibility of creating the driverless taxi.

Obviously the biggest upside of this technology is the reduction in accidents. Statistics show that in 2012 there were 330,000 trucks involved in fatal accidents, killing approximately 4,000 people. Reports show that 90% of those fatalities were caused by human error. After all, robots never get tired, fall asleep or face myriad distractions on the road.

Testing

Countless tests are being performed and evaluated by a large number of companies. While the truly driverless auto isn't quite ready for the highways, preliminary testing shows that the technology could be ready within the next decade or less.

Driverless vehicles are being developed and tested on a global scale. Daimler, affiliated with German powerhouse Mercedes-Benz, has been heavily focused on the movement. In October Daimler tested Actros, one of its semi-autonomous trucks, on the Autobahn. The experiment was deemed a success. The truck, which requires a body in the driver's seat in case of sensor or mechanical failure, maneuvered nine miles through the traffic on the famous thoroughfare at 50 mph.

One concern voiced by detractors is that the technology could be better. The cars aren't infallible. They are equipped with cameras and radar, not some mythical omniscient power. There is a possibility of equipment failure, which is why companies like Daimler require a licensed driver. Currently, the sensors could fail, weather becomes impassible, or there may be a hazard that the vehicle is not equipped to handle. If such an occurrence should arise, the vehicle will alert the driver to take over. If the driver does not respond, the vehicle will pull to the side of the road and stop until the driver is able to continue.

Forecasts

The general consensus on driverless vehicles is that the technology will not be fully ready and accepted until sometime after 2030. The US Secretary of Transportation predicts that driverless vehicles will be on the highways as early as 2025.

Various car companies and experts have weighed in with their predictions. Toyota is finally giving into the possibility of autonomous vehicles and plans to bring its first car to market by 2020. Elon Musk claims that Tesla will have its first car ready by 2018 with approval coming in 2021.

Ford CEO Mark Fields predicts that autonomous cars will be operational by 2020 although he has not stated when Ford would release its first model. Jaguar and Land-Rover announced that they will be prepared to deliver autonomous cars by 2024. Nissan forecasts that their driverless cars will be ready by 2020. Unlike Google's cars, Nissan plans to eliminate the need for 3D maps to navigate local streets and highways.

Google remains at the forefront, claiming its cars will be available in 2018.

Uber is taking a different view. CEO Travis Kalanick claims that the personalized taxi service will be driverless by 2030, rendering car ownership obsolete.